IN THIS ISSUE:
• Market projections deliver contrasting views
• January statistics reflect anticipated trends
• A realistic look at ban on foreign buyers
• News from the first month of a new year
• Decor: Being prepared to paint important
A credible look at where the real estate market may be headed
When real estate markets bounce, either up or down, there are often many experts to share their opinions on where the current market is headed. Such was the case when the New Year dawned, with newspapers and TV stations telling readers and viewers what can charitably be described as a wide discrepancy of futures. The two extreme schools of thought for 2023 are: (1) “prices are going to keep falling” and (2) “prices will turn around once interest rates go down.”
The best search for credibility and integrity may come from The Financial Post, authored by regular co-columnists Murtaza Haider and Stephen Moranis.
“These contrasting views make one wonder how reviewing the same statistics and trends can lead to such diverging forecasts,” they wrote. “In parsing the housing market, though, motivations matter.
The best search for credibility and integrity may come from The Financial Post, authored by regular co-columnists Murtaza Haider and Stephen Moranis.
“These contrasting views make one wonder how reviewing the same statistics and trends can lead to such diverging forecasts,” they wrote. “In parsing the housing market, though, motivations matter.
“For example, suppose the data is being reviewed by those told-you-so pundits who
have been predicting an imminent market crash for decades. Their market pronouncements will tend to sound bleaker despite their crash forecasts being wrong year after year. On the other hand, those whose welfare may be tied to a quick market recovery will spot a silver lining in every dark cloud. For them, the glass is never half empty.”
In the media at large, house prices are measured by “average” and “median” prices. This can be misleading, because if you are tracking total sales and most of them are in a lower category (in Vancouver, let’s say below $1 million), then the average price is going to be lower than when most sales were, say, below $2 million. Similarly, the median (or middle) price of sales is going to be lower when using the same analogy.
It also ignores what type of homes are selling, and in this market it’s more the high-priced, generous square-footage homes that are not moving, the high-end or the low-end. So what it really identifies is what part of the market is selling, not what homes like yours are doing.
More telling is the benchmark price. It identifies what’s happening to the specific value of like houses…homes in the same price range. Haider and Moranis call this “a preferred indicator of housing price dynamics since it compares apples to apples.”
And after studying the home price index, here is what they found:
“This seasonally adjusted benchmark price in December was 1.6 per cent lower than in November, 9.1 per cent lower than six months earlier and 7.5 per cent lower than in
have been predicting an imminent market crash for decades. Their market pronouncements will tend to sound bleaker despite their crash forecasts being wrong year after year. On the other hand, those whose welfare may be tied to a quick market recovery will spot a silver lining in every dark cloud. For them, the glass is never half empty.”
In the media at large, house prices are measured by “average” and “median” prices. This can be misleading, because if you are tracking total sales and most of them are in a lower category (in Vancouver, let’s say below $1 million), then the average price is going to be lower than when most sales were, say, below $2 million. Similarly, the median (or middle) price of sales is going to be lower when using the same analogy.
It also ignores what type of homes are selling, and in this market it’s more the high-priced, generous square-footage homes that are not moving, the high-end or the low-end. So what it really identifies is what part of the market is selling, not what homes like yours are doing.
More telling is the benchmark price. It identifies what’s happening to the specific value of like houses…homes in the same price range. Haider and Moranis call this “a preferred indicator of housing price dynamics since it compares apples to apples.”
And after studying the home price index, here is what they found:
“This seasonally adjusted benchmark price in December was 1.6 per cent lower than in November, 9.1 per cent lower than six months earlier and 7.5 per cent lower than in
December 2021. But a longer-term comparison shows the benchmarked price in December was up 33 per cent over three years and 29.7 per cent over five years. The five-year gains were higher for less populous towns.”
Their big-picture look led them to this conclusion.
“One important but often ignored factor is that more than 200,000 additional sales unexpectedly transpired in 2020 and 2021. Some of these transactions would have happened in 2022 or 2023, but were advanced to take advantage of ultra-low mortgage rates. Setting aside the cheap-credit-driven buying frenzy, sales volume in 2022 were in line with the long-term pre-pandemic trend. Hence, we expect more home transactions in 2023 than last year.”
Their big-picture look led them to this conclusion.
“One important but often ignored factor is that more than 200,000 additional sales unexpectedly transpired in 2020 and 2021. Some of these transactions would have happened in 2022 or 2023, but were advanced to take advantage of ultra-low mortgage rates. Setting aside the cheap-credit-driven buying frenzy, sales volume in 2022 were in line with the long-term pre-pandemic trend. Hence, we expect more home transactions in 2023 than last year.”
The lesson in all of this is nobody should automatically react to what is being reported in the media, that it’s important to analyze all the facts that are pertinent to your home, in your market.
That’s where Dale and/or Jenner can help: 604-922-3353.
That’s where Dale and/or Jenner can help: 604-922-3353.
January's REBGV statistics — a predictable analysis
If anything was predictable this month, it’s that when you check the monthly stats (below) from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, you’ll be looking at a lot of red arrows. The statistics compare sales and listings on a year-to-year basis, or in this case January 2022 and January 2023. There is a logical reason for the red arrows.
“We know the peak for prices in our market occurred last spring,” explains Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytic. “Over the coming months, year-over-year data comparisons will show larger price declines than we’ve been reporting up to now. It’s important to understand that year-over-year calculations are backward-looking. These price declines already happened, and what we are seeing today is that prices may have found a footing, even if it’s an awkward one sandwiched between low inventory and higher borrowing costs.”
So, has the market reached the bottom of its decline, in what is traditionally a quiet month for real estate?
“With mortgage rates having risen so rapidly over the last year, we anticipated sales this month would be among the lowest in recent history,” said Lis. “Looking forward, however, the Bank of Canada has said that it will pause further rate increases as long as the incoming economic data continues to support this policy stance. This should provide more certainty for home buyers and sellers in the market.”
More certainty…and with the traditionally active spring market is looming.
The proof will be in what happens this month and, perhaps more significantly, in March. It will make for an interesting analysis for British Columbians who are poised to buy, or sell.
Meanwhile, the January statistics clearly identify the REBGV’s reaction. Home sales were down 55.3 per cent from last January, and 42.9 per cent below the 10-year average for January. By category, sales were down across the board for detached homes (52.6 per cent), attached homes (55.2 per cent) and apartments (56.6 per cent). This reflects, of course, the difference between the 2022 and 2023 markets — the former one of heightened activity, the latter one of uncertainty and increasing interest rates.
In both cases, an inventory shortage still applies. That also is showing promising signs, with an increase (32.1 per cent) of homes currently for sale in Metro Vancouver, although much of that can be attributed to how quickly listings were turning into sales a year ago. New listings last month were down 20.9 per cent compared to January 2022 and 173.4 per cent compared to December.
The sales-to-active listings ratio, at 13.7 per cent, is indicating price stability — anything between 12 and 20 per cent, analysts generally say, means that for a sustained period there is neither downward nor upward pressure on home prices.
Be sure to check back next month to see if these statistical theories are the beginning of a welcome trend.
“We know the peak for prices in our market occurred last spring,” explains Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director, economics and data analytic. “Over the coming months, year-over-year data comparisons will show larger price declines than we’ve been reporting up to now. It’s important to understand that year-over-year calculations are backward-looking. These price declines already happened, and what we are seeing today is that prices may have found a footing, even if it’s an awkward one sandwiched between low inventory and higher borrowing costs.”So, has the market reached the bottom of its decline, in what is traditionally a quiet month for real estate?
“With mortgage rates having risen so rapidly over the last year, we anticipated sales this month would be among the lowest in recent history,” said Lis. “Looking forward, however, the Bank of Canada has said that it will pause further rate increases as long as the incoming economic data continues to support this policy stance. This should provide more certainty for home buyers and sellers in the market.”
More certainty…and with the traditionally active spring market is looming.
The proof will be in what happens this month and, perhaps more significantly, in March. It will make for an interesting analysis for British Columbians who are poised to buy, or sell.
Meanwhile, the January statistics clearly identify the REBGV’s reaction. Home sales were down 55.3 per cent from last January, and 42.9 per cent below the 10-year average for January. By category, sales were down across the board for detached homes (52.6 per cent), attached homes (55.2 per cent) and apartments (56.6 per cent). This reflects, of course, the difference between the 2022 and 2023 markets — the former one of heightened activity, the latter one of uncertainty and increasing interest rates.
In both cases, an inventory shortage still applies. That also is showing promising signs, with an increase (32.1 per cent) of homes currently for sale in Metro Vancouver, although much of that can be attributed to how quickly listings were turning into sales a year ago. New listings last month were down 20.9 per cent compared to January 2022 and 173.4 per cent compared to December.
The sales-to-active listings ratio, at 13.7 per cent, is indicating price stability — anything between 12 and 20 per cent, analysts generally say, means that for a sustained period there is neither downward nor upward pressure on home prices.
Be sure to check back next month to see if these statistical theories are the beginning of a welcome trend.
Statistics for the markets of West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East are graphically displayed below, as always.
Foreign buyers’ ban: much ado about nothing?
It has been a month now since the Federal Government enacted legislation — known formally as part of Bill C-19 — that “prohibits the purchase of residential property in Canada by non-Canadians.” What followed were several days of vocal opposition, including the words of foreign workers who wanted to become homeowners and couldn’t.
Foreign buyers’ ban: much ado about...?s’
Since then?
Pretty much radio silence.
There is some logic behind what has, or hasn’t, been happening in the fallout from Bill C-19. For one thing, there are many, many exceptions that allow non-Canadian residents to
Pretty much radio silence.
There is some logic behind what has, or hasn’t, been happening in the fallout from Bill C-19. For one thing, there are many, many exceptions that allow non-Canadian residents to
buy property. For example, a temporary resident who “satisfies prescriber conditions” is eligible to buy residential property. A person of a “prescribed class of persons” is eligible. Those two are from the legalese that makes up that section of Bill C-19.
Other exceptions have been unearthed.
According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association “exceptions exist for international students, temporary residents, specifically exempted foreign nationals and refugee claimants, subject to varying conditions, such as tax filing and residency obligations.”
Also, it’s widely believed that many of the potential “foreign” residential buyers who want to buy property here already have Canadian citizenship or legal status. As such, the ban is unlikely to have much impact on real estate markets. It won’t likely have an impact on affordability, because house prices are already high.
When C-19 became law, CNN posted this headline: “Canada is banning some foreigners from buying property after home prices surged.”
What would be interesting is knowing how many foreign professionals who are needed to bolster Canada’s healthcare system will decline the invitation if they are forbidden from buying a home.
Adds BCREA:
“Certain aspects of the Foreign Buyers Ban still lack clarity, including the exemptions.”
Unless it becomes an issue of greater significance, you shouldn’t expect to hear much more about the ban.
According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association “exceptions exist for international students, temporary residents, specifically exempted foreign nationals and refugee claimants, subject to varying conditions, such as tax filing and residency obligations.”
Also, it’s widely believed that many of the potential “foreign” residential buyers who want to buy property here already have Canadian citizenship or legal status. As such, the ban is unlikely to have much impact on real estate markets. It won’t likely have an impact on affordability, because house prices are already high.
When C-19 became law, CNN posted this headline: “Canada is banning some foreigners from buying property after home prices surged.”
What would be interesting is knowing how many foreign professionals who are needed to bolster Canada’s healthcare system will decline the invitation if they are forbidden from buying a home.
Adds BCREA:
“Certain aspects of the Foreign Buyers Ban still lack clarity, including the exemptions.”
Unless it becomes an issue of greater significance, you shouldn’t expect to hear much more about the ban.
In August 2020, husband-and-wife ophthalmologists who lived in West Vancouver purchased a commercial property on
Marine Drive for their new office. They immediately went to work on making the property an attractive part of the
community. They did just that and today the community is richer for it, as well as richer for having two highly-qualified
ophthalmologists with a young family living in Dundarave and working in an attractive space designed to be in harmony
with the West Vancouver Community Centre, on the other side of Marine Drive.
Meanwhile, in other news this month...
Meanwhile, in other news this month...
The most important real estate news is widely covered in major media outlets, and sometimes analyzed here in News From Nexus. What you'll find in this section is interesting real estate news that you may not see on TV or in the mainstream newspapers.
Cooling-off period for home buyers now in effect
Cooling-off period for home buyers now in effect
On January 3, British Columbia became the first province to legalize a “cooling-off period” to give home buyers a chance to reconsider and rescind accepted offers on residential property. The penalty for walking away is .25 per cent of the offer, deducted from the deposit. If the offer contains any subject conditions pertaining to home inspections or financing, the removal period for them begins the same day that the cooling-off period starts.
Putting 2023 property assessments in proper context
The annual property assessments for British Columbians probably comes with a little sticker shock this year. Because assessments are based on home values as of the previous July 1, homeowners may find their property is assessed for more than what the property is worth today. Payback may come next year, should property values increase beyond the assessments. In the meantime, higher assessments makes it more challenging for investors and builders.Bank rate increase, pause, prospects for spring market
The Bank of Canada just announced an interest-rate increase of .25 per cent and implied there will be a pause in future increases. That is expected to bring an increase in real estate activity, possibly to coincide with the traditionally active spring market. Experts believe the market’s turn won’t happen overnight, but after buyers start saying “maybe we’ve hit the bottom” because they’ll want to buy or invest in a home before prices rise again.
“Even when I had to be out of the country, Dale and Jennifer kept me up to date with what they were doing every step of the way. In fact, it was during a three-way conversation with me while I was in Australia that the sale [of my home] was successfully concluded.”
— Maria Jones, West Vancouver
Decor: Preparing to paint integral to doing the best job
Every month, News From Nexus features ideas or observations about Decor, or ways you can make your home more appealing.
It could.
Paint prep is arguably the least enjoyable part of the job, but you’ll appreciate having done it well when reviewing results and cleaning up.
If you can’t move furniture out of the room, at least try for the middle of the room, and cover everything with drop cloths. Remove plates and put tape around light switches, door handles, windows, baseboards and door frames. Tape tip: After painting, remove the tape before the wall is completely dry, so it doesn't take dried paint with it. Wiping or dusting the wall before applying paint will ensure a smoother finish.Using quality paint can be the most important factor, whether you’re doing-it-yourself or hiring a professional. The tools of the trade — brushes, rollers and trays — are also important. And if you’re re-painting a surface, be sure you know the paint you’re covering…is it oil-based or latex? Gloss or flat? If you apply a latex paint over an oil-based, it will probably peel and crack, so a light sanding of the oil-based surface will prevent that.
If it’s new drywall or a wood surface, apply a primer. Many paints now combine paint and primer, which works well on previously painted surfaces. However, priming a new, unpainted surface first will create a better final product.
There is an “order” to painting.
Start at the top and work your way down, from ceilings to walls to doors and windows to baseboards and, lastly, to floors. Once you start, don’t dip the brush too far into the paint…about a third of the brush is plenty. It will save a lot of messy drips, not to mention paint! Applying a second coat too quickly may result in brush and roller strokes that are visible, a lumpy, messy finish or peeling paint. If you’re not sure how long to wait between coats, try 24 hours.
And, finally, a couple of don’ts:
1. Don’t wear good clothes
2. Don’t let brushes dry out before cleaning them
And it goes without saying that you also don’t rush, at any part of the job.
That Drive BC has a “height clearance tool” to generate the shortest and safest route between two points for vehicles, such as semi-trailers, which could encounter conflicting structures?
Photo credits
2023 graphic: towfiqu ahamed barbhuiya, Canva; Commercial property: Video Openhouse; Vancouver skyline: Freebie by Pixabay, Canva;
Decor: Roselyn Tirado @roselyntirado, Unsplash
Real Estate Monthly Statistics
The following statistics for West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver West and Vancouver East compare January 2023 to January 2022 (note: sales refers to number of sales, not to sale prices).
Benchmark Price: Estimated sale price of a benchmark property. Benchmarks represent a typical property within each market.
To see more information on local stats, please click here.
What's happening in February throughout the Lower Mainland, with protocols included as currently known.
Darren Lee and The Memphis Flash: The World’s No. 1 Elvis Tribute
Grosvenor Theatre, Kay Meek Arts Centre, West Vancouver
Darren Lee, after 11 years in Las Vegas and five years in Hawaii, back to his Canadian roots with a phenomenal two-hour tribute to The King; 7:30 p.m.
kaymeek.com/events/elvis-tribute
February 4
An Evening With Bruce Cockburn
The Centre in Vancouver
777 Homer St.
A Canadian musical legend who’s written more than 350 songs, in styles ranging from folk to jazz-influenced rock, 8 p.m.
www.ticketmaster.ca/an-evening-with-bruce-cockburn
February 4
Candlelight: A Tribute to Fleetwood Mac
Kerrisdale Presbyterian Church
A tribute to the award-winning Hall of Fame rock group formed in 1967, selling more than 120 million records worldwide, 6:30 and 8:30 p.m.
feverup.com
Until February 5
Dine Out Vancouver Festival
A chance to sample the culinary world at Canada’s largest food and drink festival with three-course, fixed-price dinners at many of Vancouver’s top restaurants.
www.dineoutvancouver.com
February 9
Thomas Rhett ‘Bring The Bar To You Tour’
Rogers Arena
Georgia-born country pop singer/songwriter, with boundless energy and exceptional talent; 7:30 p.m.
www.ticketmaster.ca/thomas-rhett
Abbotsford Canucks at Abbotsford Centre
February 10: vs Tucson Roadrunners, 7 p.m.
February 11: vs Tucson Roadrunners, 7 p.m.
February 18: vs San Jose Barracuda, 7 p.m.
February 20: vs San Jose Barracuda, 2 p.m.
www.abbotsford.canucks.com
Weekends until February 11
Seussical the Musical
Michael J Fox Theatre, Burnaby 2:30 and 7 p.m.
A musical comedy based on the stories of Dr. Seuss, with “Horton” being the star of the show
michaeljfoxtheatre.ca/events
Until February 12
FlyOver Canada features FlyOver Taiwan
Explore some of Taiwan’s most iconic and picturesque sights, all from above. Open daily from 10 a.m - 9 p.m. Purchase tickets online in advance
www.flyovercanada.com
Until February 12
Forgiveness
Stanley Industrial Alliance Stage, Vancouver
Based on the acclaimed memoir by Mark Sakamoto, the powerful story of his family’s harrowing experiences during World War II; dark Mondays, check website for times
artsclub.com/shows/2022-2023/forgiveness
Vancouver Canucks at Rogers Arena
February 13: vs St. Louis Blues, 7 p.m.
February 15: vs New York Rangers, 7 p.m.
February 18: vs Philadelphia Flyers, 7 p.m.
February 25: vs Boston Bruinss, 4 p.m.
www.canucks.com
February 16 - 25
Just For Laughs 2023 Comedy Festival
Many of the biggest names in comedy appearing at Western Canada’s biggest comedy festival, at various locations throughout the Lower Mainland.
jflvancouver.com
February 19
A Midsummer Night’s Dream
Queen Elizabeth Theatre
Vancouver Opera’s evening of pure magical entertainment, based on the famous play of the same name, 2 p.m.
www.vancouveropera.ca/whats-on/midsummer-nights-dream
Until February 20
2023 LunarFest Vancouver
Canada’s premier presenter of contemporary expression in Asian arts and culture, celebrating The Year of the Rabbit, with various dates and locations around the Lower Mainland: Granville Island, Jack Poole Plaza, Vancouver Art Gallery to name a few
lunarfestvancouver.ca
Until February 23
T.rex: The Ultimate Predator
Science World
A life-sized model of a Tyrannosaurus rex to captivate young and old, setting the stage for entertaining investigation into dinosaur history — daily from 10 a.m.
www.scienceworld.ca
February 26
Relive the Music — ’50s and ’60s
Bell Performing Arts Centre, Surrey
A trip through not only the music of the ’50s and ’60s, but also history, trivia and memories of that era, 7:30 p.m.
relivethemusic.ca
Until March 5
Beyond Van Gogh: The Immersive Experience
Agriplex at Cloverdale Fairgrounds
Over 300 of Vincent Van Gogh’s spectacular works, through the use of cutting-edge technology and an original musical score, daily from 10 a.m.
vangoghsurrey.com
Until March 19
Keeping the Song Alive
Bill Reid Gallery
Through traditional music, contemporary art, film and historical documentation, an exhibit exploring the decades-long work of Dr. Ida Halpern and the late Kwakwaka’wakw Chiefs Billy Assured and Mungo Martin
ONGOING EVENTS
884 Granville St., Vancouver
Free guided tours of the Orpheum Theatre, one of the most beautiful concert halls in North America
www.destinationvancouver.com
Forbidden Vancouver Walking Tours
Downtown Locations
Highly recommended, guided walking tours, a combination of storytelling, theatre and local history
forbiddenvancouver.ca
Sea to Sky Gondola
Squamish
Spectacular Sky Pilot suspension bridge walking trails, the Via Ferrata adventure and many other mountain-top activities
Spectacular Sky Pilot suspension bridge walking trails, the Via Ferrata adventure and many other mountain-top activities
Vancouver Aquarium
Stanley Park
Over 65,000 animals under one roof, home of the only Marine Mammal Rescue Centre in Canada (mandatory face masks)
www.vanaqua.org
Over 65,000 animals under one roof, home of the only Marine Mammal Rescue Centre in Canada (mandatory face masks)
www.vanaqua.org
Worldwide Webcams
A website catering to people who want to travel, virtual visits everywhere with webcams from Argentina to Zanzibar, and many places in between
skylinewebcams.com
BC Sports Hall of Fame and Museum
Many of Canada’s most talented athletes at Indigenous Sport Gallery, Canadian Dragon Boat Exhibition, Greg Moore Gallery, Rick Hansen Gallery! Daily 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.
bcsportshall.com
Grouse Mountain — The Peak of Vancouver
Plenty of activities for all ages when purchasing a mountain admission ticket
www.tourismvancouver.com/listings/grouse-mountain-the-peak
Virtual Tours of 12 Famous Museums
Experiencing museums from London to Seoul from the comfort of your home
www.travelandleisure.com/attractions
North Shore Events
www.vancouversnorthshore.com/events-calendar
West Vancouver United Church
Sunday service 10 a.m.
wvuc.bc.ca/worship
Tourism Vancouver
Virtually Vancouver, and more
www.tourismvancouver.com
Need some culture or learning in your life?
Go to a virtual museum — you’ll find a lot of them through Google: artsandculture.google.com
Go to a virtual opera: www.metopera.org
Visit the Science Centre: www.scienceworld.ca
Nature web cams can be fun to watch. explore.org/livecams
Search for lots of free learning programs for kids and adults online.
Virtual programming at your favourite library
A website catering to people who want to travel, virtual visits everywhere with webcams from Argentina to Zanzibar, and many places in between
skylinewebcams.com
BC Sports Hall of Fame and Museum
Many of Canada’s most talented athletes at Indigenous Sport Gallery, Canadian Dragon Boat Exhibition, Greg Moore Gallery, Rick Hansen Gallery! Daily 9 a.m. to 5 p.m.
bcsportshall.com
Grouse Mountain — The Peak of Vancouver
Plenty of activities for all ages when purchasing a mountain admission ticket
www.tourismvancouver.com/listings/grouse-mountain-the-peak
Virtual Tours of 12 Famous Museums
Experiencing museums from London to Seoul from the comfort of your home
www.travelandleisure.com/attractions
North Shore Events
www.vancouversnorthshore.com/events-calendar
West Vancouver United Church
Sunday service 10 a.m.
wvuc.bc.ca/worship
Tourism Vancouver
Virtually Vancouver, and more
www.tourismvancouver.com
Need some culture or learning in your life?
Go to a virtual museum — you’ll find a lot of them through Google: artsandculture.google.com
Go to a virtual opera: www.metopera.org
Visit the Science Centre: www.scienceworld.ca
Nature web cams can be fun to watch. explore.org/livecams
Search for lots of free learning programs for kids and adults online.
Virtual programming at your favourite library
